Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Hope on the Horizon for the US and Canada

The news is out – the recession is over! Or is it?

Whatever you read today seems to have a different opinion. Some say that the worst is behind us and we're recovering very nicely, thank you. Others say that we're experiencing a temporary lull before the next storm. Optimists say we can return to our previous standards of living. Pessimists say that we should learn from our mistakes and prepare for the next rainy day.

The truth probably lies somewhere between the two. The fact is that the best of economists will tell you that predicting the future is virtually impossible. Yet, when the figures are checked and re-checked, the recent economic indicators are rather positive. Forget the major "what-if" theories and focus on what's really happening.

Recently released figures for the final quarter of 2009 indicate a growth in the GDP of both Canada and the U.S. In the U.S., the growth is attributed primarily to inventory rebuilding. While some consider that a temporary measure, likely to taper off, others point out that the need for increased inventory is due to resurgence in consumer spending. True, consumers are still spending their money more cautiously but the figures remain positive.

Not just consumers are spending more. Business investments grew by 2.9% in the final quarter, as compared to a nearly 6% drop in the third quarter. Equipment and software investments rose by a whopping 13.3% for the quarter. Also, net exports added to the U.S. GDP, indicating that the Americans are now using their weak currency and high productivity to their benefit in foreign trade.

Back in Canada, economists have re-examined all the figures and are pleasantly surprised that economic growth in the fourth quarter exceeded 4%, well above the forecasts. The Canadian figures continue to rise well, indicating that recovery is progressing.

It's hard to tell but, for the time being, after a treacherous journey, both Canadians and Americans are safely on the way back home.

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